A major drop expected in petroleum prices across Pakistan is set to bring big relief to millions of consumers from 16 October 2025. According to reliable industry sources and early working papers, petrol prices may fall by Rs. 6.10 per litre, while high-speed diesel (HSD) is expected to decline by Rs. 1 per litre.
This development comes at a time when Pakistanis are already struggling with inflation, transport expenses, and rising electricity bills — making this price cut extremely important for households and businesses.
Expected Petroleum Price Reductions
According to official pricing data shared with the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), the following reductions are anticipated:
| Product Type | Expected Reduction (Rs/Litre) |
|---|---|
| Petrol | 6.10 |
| High-Speed Diesel | 1.00 |
| Kerosene Oil | 2.75 |
| Light Diesel Oil | 1.64 |
The complete working paper has already been forwarded to OGRA, which will send the final summary to the Ministry of Finance for approval. Once approved, the government will issue an official notification to implement the revised rates.
Why the Drop Is Expected? – Key Reason: Global Oil Price Decline
One of the biggest reasons behind the major drop expected in petroleum prices is the sharp fall in international crude oil markets.
Since 1 October 2025, Pakistan’s ex-refinery petrol prices have fallen by 3.76%, dropping from:
- Rs. 162.96 → Rs. 158.86 per litre
This decline follows the global trend, where crude oil prices continue to ease.
Global Crude Oil Price Comparison
| Period | Petrol Price (USD/Barrel) | Change % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 October 2025 | 76.51 | — |
| 15 October 2025 | 73.71 | -3.66% |
If international prices keep falling, Pakistan may experience even more price cuts in the upcoming fortnightly reviews.
How Taxes May Affect the Final Price Drop
Even though the expected drop is good news, experts warn that the final reduction depends heavily on government taxes and petroleum levy (PL).
- If the government keeps taxes unchanged, consumers will receive the full benefit.
- If PL or GST is increased, the actual relief may get reduced.
Currently, petroleum levy remains one of the largest contributors to Pakistan’s revenue generation.
Economic Impact: How the Price Drop Will Help People
A major drop expected in petroleum prices will have a positive effect on multiple sectors of the economy:
Lower Transport Costs
Reduced fuel prices will decrease fares for public and goods transport.
Lower Food & Essentials Prices
Transport contributes to food inflation. A drop in petrol/diesel will stabilize market rates.
Boost in Purchasing Power
Households under financial pressure will get direct relief.
Support for Businesses & Industries
Lower operational costs will improve business profitability, especially logistics and manufacturing sectors.
Analysts believe this could be the biggest relief for the public in several months.
Government Procedure – What Happens Next?
The new petroleum prices will only be applicable after the following steps:
- OGRA submits final summary → Ministry of Finance
- Ministry reviews global rates, taxes & exchange rate
- Government approves / adjusts prices
- Official notification is issued for implementation
- New prices take effect from 16 October 2025
If no new taxes are introduced, petrol could become Rs. 6 cheaper, offering much-needed relief.
Conclusion
A Major Drop Expected In Petroleum Prices is welcome news for millions of Pakistanis facing high inflation. Falling global crude oil prices and reduced ex-refinery rates have created room for meaningful cuts in petrol, diesel, kerosene, and light diesel oil.
If the government maintains its current tax structure, consumers could see one of the largest fuel price reductions of 2025, with the possibility of further drops in the next pricing cycle.
